Forecasting Analyst, AGL

• Melbourne based (right next to Southern Cross Station)
• Work with a leading utilities company
• Collaborative and innovation focused environment

The Company

AGL is one of Australia’s leading integrated energy companies and largest ASX listed owner, operator and developer of renewable energy generation in the country. Drawing on over 175 years of experience, AGL operates retail and merchant energy businesses, power generation assets and an upstream gas portfolio. AGL has one of Australia’s largest retail energy and dual fuel customer bases. AGL has a diverse power generation portfolio including base, peaking and intermediate generation plants, spread across traditional thermal generation as well as renewable sources including hydro, wind, landfill gas and biomass. AGL is taking action toward creating a sustainable energy future for our investors, communities and customers.

About the Role

Wholesale Markets is responsible for managing AGL’s wholesale electricity, gas and environmental product volume and price risks, through commercial management of the gas and generation portfolio, and the use of financial instruments such as primary and derivative contracts.The role exists to provide market analysis, research and insights, enabling the development and continuous improvement of WM’s gas and electricity forecasting capability, thus supporting high-quality trading and commercial decision making.

Key Responsibilities

• To contribute to the ongoing enhancement of commercial decision-making within AGL’s Wholesale Markets business unit, through provision of, and continuous improvement to high-quality quantitative and qualitative forecasting and analysis of customer demand by:

• Maintain core datasets utilised across the business for key decision making
• Design, operate, and enhance forecasting models based around sound, explainable algorithms
• Use probabilistic modelling to give guidance on forecast ranges, particularly regarding maximum demands
• Provide guidance and advice to AGL’s Wholesale Operations team, particularly on days of potential high demands and/or price volatility

• To provide thought leadership in the conceptualisation, development, deployment and continual improvement of AGL’s in-house market modelling and forecasting capability
• Demonstrate AGL Values by acting in the best interests of AGL at all times and working together across the business to create the best overall results and decisions.
• Proactively participate in meetings by sharing experience and information. Genuinely consider diverse views and listens to learn; rather than to confirm their original position.
• Drive key decision making through presentation (both verbal and non-verbal) of forecast & model outcomes) positioned at senior leaders.

About You

• Strong numeracy – including a sound grasp of the concepts of statistics and probability: Demonstrable excellence, illustrated through at least upper quartile performance on standard numeracy tests.
• Modelling skills – skill in selection, construction and operation of appropriate business, economic or financial models as applicable to business problems. For example – regression, time series and simulation models.
• Very high competence with Microsoft Excel.
• Programming skills. This could be demonstrated, for example, through excellence in VBA, C++, C#, Java, Matlab, Python or some other programming language.
• Data interrogation: Competence with SQL query writing, interrogation of SQL Server and/or Oracle databases, database design principles, data structures.
• Interpersonal communication: ability to convey complex analytical requirements, results and insights clearly and patiently in one-on-one interactions.
• Creativity and imagination – able to see linkages between apparently unrelated matters. Able to develop and deploy new or unusual approaches to problems.
• Intellectual curiosity – self-motivated to continually improve one’s own understanding of the world. Empowered through discovery and learning.